Project R-16157

Modelling of agricultural markets and market impacts across spatial and temporal scales: Application to climate change scenario studies (Research)

Food systems worldwide face a dual challenge from global warming, being adversely affected by climate change and being a large source of greenhouse gas emissions. Simulation studies are crucial to assess the interaction between climate change and food systems. State-of-the-art simulation models are unmatched in scope, but have important shortcomings. In this project I will use empirical insights to advance the representation of markets and market impacts – the spatial scale, the temporal scale, and the heterogeneity of households – in such models. The project has three objectives that each relate to the impact of intra- and international agricultural markets on climate change mitigation and adaptation within the Agriculture, Forestry and Land use sector in Africa. The first one is to develop a spatial model of agricultural supply chains and markets. The second one is understand the macro-economic conditions governing trade responses to climate extremes. The third one is to study the micro-level distributive impacts of market-based adaptation to climatic variability. The project will lead to technical innovations in spatial, micro-simulation, and dynamic general equilibrium modelling and to new, policy relevant knowledge on the impact of agricultural markets on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The broad and ambitious scope of the project serves as a building block for a future ERC starting grant proposal.

01 October 2025 - 30 September 2027