Project R-16374

Heat, health and hazards: Understanding and mitigating compound environmental risks for health in Belgium (Research)

CeRAC's 2024 assessment of Belgium's safe operating space highlighted multiple crossed planetary boundaries, necessitating input to assess their compounded risks. ChaRM-BE addresses this for Belgium's urban areas, adopting a 'healthy society perspective' based on Rockstrom's 2023 Earth System Boundaries framework. This approach enables health risk quantification from the interplay of climate change, air pollution, and land use, providing actionable insights for societal risk assessments for Belgium. Belgium's cities face excessive heat (De Troeyer, 2020), with older adults most at risk for heat-related mortality (Crouzier, 2024). However, the compounded effects of high temperatures and other variables on mortality and morbidity remain underexplored (Ali, 2024). Socioeconomic disparities and cascading societal impacts also require further investigation. ChaRM-BE addresses this through five objectives: 1) Quantify compound impacts of conditions (heat, air pollution, droughts, humidity, wind) on mortality and health outcomes, examining disparities across socioeconomic and demographic groups; 2) Assess cascading effects on public health outcomes (e.g., sick leave, disability, early mortality) and associated societal costs using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and cost-of-illness estimates; 3) Evaluate climate adaptation strategies, including urban land-use changes to reduce adverse compound conditions; 4) Model future health and societal risks, integrating temperature trends, urbanization, and demographic shifts; 5) Develop risk prioritization frameworks and guidelines for policymakers and urban planners to implement climate-adaptive strategies.

15 December 2025 - 15 March 2029