Project R-17029

Beyond Single-Pathogen Analysis: A Multi-Pathogen Framework for Public Health Decision-Making on Respiratory Diseases under Co-Circulation (Research)

Multiple respiratory pathogens, including influenza, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2, circulate concur-rently during the annual respiratory virus season. Yet they are typically analysed in isolation, neglecting biological and behavioural interactions that alter epidemic timing and disease bur-den. This simplification risks misestimating intervention impact and misinterpreting surveil-lance signals under co-circulation. This project develops a stochastic, age-structured meta-population framework to evaluate tri-pathogen dynamics under realistic demographic and spatial conditions. Using simulation as a controlled setting, we determine when accounting for co-circulating pathogens changes conclusions on intervention effectiveness or surveillance interpretation. First, we develop a unified mechanistic metapopulation system parameterised by Belgian demographic and mobility data, incorporating biological interaction processes and infection-induced behavioural change as drivers of cross-pathogen dynamics. Second, we assess the robustness of public health and social measures and vaccination, identifying when simplified analyses yield unstable conclusions. Third, we quantify how syndromic, clinical, and wastewater surveillance transform latent dynamics into observed signals and when simplified analytical lenses introduce structural bias. The framework provides public health agencies with a mechanistic benchmark to determine when integrated multi-pathogen modelling is necessary.

01 November 2026 - 31 October 2030