Project R-17124

Agricultural trade as cannel to limit impact of climate shocks on food security (Research)

How can agricultural trade mitigate the impact of climate shocks on food security? More frequent and intense weather conditions resulting from climate change pose a challenge to millions of households that depend on small-scale agriculture and/or struggle to attain food security. In general, the literature shows that in the context of long-term global warming, agricultural trade integration has a positive impact on food security. However, little research has been done in the context of short-term climate extremes (such as droughts or floods). This PhD research investigates how agricultural trade (both internal and international) can cushion climate shocks and build resilience toward more stable food availability. Besides understanding the mechanisms, the research will quantify the consequences of trade-based adaptation on two socio-economic factors. The first factor is inequality. Food access based on trade could lead to bidding wars, where only those who are rich enough have access to food. The distributional effects are not straightforward, as households can be seen as both producers and consumers. The second factor is migration. Not only can migration play an important role in buffering food security in the face of climate shocks, but the impact of migration could also depend on whether a region is densely connected in terms of agricultural trade. The research methodology includes the design of a spatial equilibrium model using mathematical programming. The model is calibrated to one or multiple low-income countries (where food insecurity is most prevalent) using data on agricultural production, consumption, and trade. The framework allows us to run a counterfactual analysis to estimate the impact of past climate shocks and apply different climate change scenarios to assess possible future outcomes.

01 October 2026 - 30 September 2030