Intervention strategies

Under this stream of work, we are using mathematical models to investigate the impact of intervention measures - such as travel bans or school closures - introduced to control the spread and severity of the pandemic.

Key activities include:

• Building and applying models to make real-time predictions of the impact of various intervention measures. This will be done using the information gathered in the Modelling and Forecasting stream. These models will be updated consistently as more information about the pandemic becomes known.
• Examining the impact of intervention measures put in place for COVID-19 on other respiratory infections like pneumonia or seasonal flu.

• Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: SOCRATES: an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19
• Led by UHasselt: A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19
• Led by LSHTM: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study
• Led by RIVM: The impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 transmission on contacts and mixing patterns in the Netherlands: repeated cross-sectional surveys in 2016/2017, April 2020 and June 2020
• Led by UBern: Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries
• Led by UHasselt: COVID-19 report on a meta-population model for Belgium: a first status report
• Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study
• Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies
• Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics
• Led by LSHTM: The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19
• Led by LSHTM: The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories
• Led by LSHTM: Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
• Led by UHasselt: On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
• Led by LSHTM: Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study
• Led by LSHTM: PRELIMINARY – NOT PEER REVIEWED Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
• Led by LSHTM: Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data
• Led by RVIM: The expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies
• Led by LSHTM: The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements
• Led by RIVM: The impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on COVID-19 disease outcomes
• Led by LSHTM: PRELIMINARY - NOT PEER REVIEWED Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning vaccine protection: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England
• Led by LSHTM: Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis
• Led by LSHTM: Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
• Led by LSHTM: Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study
• Led by UBern: Assessing real-world vaccine effectiveness against severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational study from routine surveillance data in Switzerland
• Led by LSHTM: Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
• Led by LSHTM: Challenges in ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines: production, affordability, allocation, and deployment
• Led by LSHTM: Optimizing Benefits of Testing Key Workers for Infection with SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis 
• Led by LSHTM: Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions
• Led by UHasselt: PRELIMINARY - NOT YET PEER REVIEWED Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies
• Led by UBern: A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland 
• Led by RIVM: Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization
• Led by LSHTM: Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study
• Led by LSHTM: Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: A population-based cohort study
• Led by LSHTM: PRELIMINARY - NOT YET PEER REVIEWED Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic
• Led by LSHTM: Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study
• Led by LSHTM: Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England 
• Led by LSHTM: The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study
• Led by UBern: PRELIMINARY - NOT YET PEER REVIEWED  Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020
• Led by LSHTM:  Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study 
• Led by LSHTM: Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools 
• Led by LSHTM: The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

The intervention strategies workstream is led by the team at LSHTM, supported by researchers at UHasselt, Antwerp and Bern.