Under this stream of work, we are using mathematical models to investigate the impact of intervention measures - such as travel bans or school closures - introduced to control the spread and severity of the pandemic.
Key activities include:
- Building and applying models to make real-time predictions of the impact of various intervention measures. This will be done using the information gathered in the Modelling and Forecasting stream. These models will be updated consistently as more information about the pandemic becomes known.
- Examining the impact of intervention measures put in place for COVID-19 on other respiratory infections like pneumonia or seasonal flu.
- Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: SOCRATES: an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19
- Led by UHasselt: A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19
- Led by LSHTM: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study
- Led by RIVM: The impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 transmission on contacts and mixing patterns in the Netherlands: repeated cross-sectional surveys in 2016/2017, April 2020 and June 2020
- Led by UBern: Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries
- Led by UHasselt: COVID-19 report on a meta-population model for Belgium: a first status report
- Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19: an individual-based modelling study
- Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies
- Led by UHasselt and UAntwerp: Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics
- Led by ISI: Estimating the effect of social inequalities in the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile
- Led by LSHTM: The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19
- Led by LSHTM: The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories
- Led by LSHTM: Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
- Led by UHasselt: On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
- Led by LSHTM: Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study
- Led by LSHTM: PRELIMINARY – NOT PEER REVIEWED Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
- Led by RVIM: The expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies
- Led by LSHTM: Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data
- Led by ISI: Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control
- Led by LSHTM: The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements
- Led by UBern: Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020
- Led by UBern: A tale of two variants: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha in Geneva, Switzerland, and Beta in South Africa
The intervention strategies workstream is led by the team at LSHTM, supported by researchers at UHasselt, Antwerp and Bern.